Q1 performance is under year-on-year pressure due to continuing losses in the lower reaches.OzwincasinonodepositbonusTo maintain the "buy" rating, the former biology department issued a quarterly report, and Q1 achieved revenue of 2% in 2024Ozwincasinonodepositbonus500 million yuan (yoy-26.68%, qoq-13.40%), and 87.2284 million yuan net profit (yoy-35.64%, qoq+126.53%). We estimate that the annual return net profit of the company in 2024-25-26 will be 452x683 million yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.97plus 1.21x1.46 yuan respectively. The average PE of the comparable company's Wind in 2024 will be 20 times, considering that the moat of the company's pig fry is obvious and the R & D strength is strong. Porcine transmissible gastroenteritis, porcine epidemic diarrhea, porcine delta coronavirus triple vaccine and round branch combined vaccine are expected to be launched in 2024 and contribute additional increments to the company's profits. we will give the company 29 times PE in 2024 with a target price of 28.13 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating. Downstream pig farming loss, drag down company income profit year-on-year decline 24Q1 company income profit year-on-year decline or mainly by vaccine product sales price double pressure, while the base is relatively high. 24Q1's revenue is down 27% from a year earlier, with a gross profit margin of about 67% and a year-on-year decline of about 11pct, which is at its low level since the company went public. According to our analysis, the company's vaccine product sales are under pressure or mainly due to continued losses in downstream pig farming and increasing cash flow pressure in the context of a decline in demand for animal protection products such as live pig vaccines, and the breeding side is more willing to lower the price of animal protection products. Accounts receivable continues to shrink, and the risk of bad debts may be more controllable. The provision of bad debt losses of accounts receivable in 2023 has a certain impact on the profits of most animal insurance companies. The company's notes and accounts receivable as of the end of 24Q1 are about 312 million yuan, which has contracted for three consecutive quarters compared with the same period last year, or mainly due to the company's tightening of the accounting policy at the bottom of the breeding cycle due to the consideration of bad debt risk control. We believe that the tightening of the accounting policy can effectively help animal protection enterprises to control the risk of bad debts, and at the same time, the bottom of the breeding cycle may be more inclined to choose suppliers such as animal insurance who are willing to sell on credit and have a relatively long account period. as a result, the pressure on the sales of the company's products has intensified. R & D strength is strong, revenue and profit is expected to gradually repair the company to continue to promote new product research and development, pig vaccines, round branch vaccine, mycoplasma parasuis vaccine and other three new products will soon obtain new veterinary drug certificates, pseudorabies (HB-98 strain) and porcine transmissible gastroenteritis, porcine epidemic diarrhea, porcine δ coronavirus triple vaccine has entered the review stage, as well as classical swine fever, pseudorabies vaccine and other products continue to promote Poultry vaccine, pet vaccine (cat triple, etc.), ruminant vaccine and other products are also under research and development. The launch of new products is expected to continue to contribute to the company's performance increment. At the same time, we expect the pig cycle to reverse in 2024, and the pig breeding industry is expected to enter a more sustained profit period, which is expected to lead to a gradual recovery of demand for animal protection products and drive the company's revenue and profit recovery. Risk hints: the boom of the pig breeding industry is not as expected, the promotion of market-oriented sales is not as expected, and the competition in the animal vaccine market is intensified. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.